Application of Chaos and Neural Network in Power Load Forecasting英文文献资料.docVIP

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Application of Chaos and Neural Network in Power Load Forecasting英文文献资料.doc

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Application of Chaos and Neural Network in Power Load Forecasting英文文献资料

HindawiPublishingCorporation DiscreteDynamicsinNatureandSociety Volume2011,ArticleID597634,12pages doi:10.1155/2011/597634 ResearchArticle Application ofChaosandNeuralNetworkinPower LoadForecasting LiLiandLiuChong-xin SchoolofElectricalEngineering, Xi’anJiaotongUniversity,Xi’an,Shaanxi710049,China Correspondence shouldbeaddressedtoLiLi,2005lili0328@163.com Received8March2011;Accepted 16June2011 Academic Editor:RecaiKilic Copyright q2011L.LiandL.Chong-xin. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction inanymedium,providedtheoriginalworkisproperlycited. This paper employs chaos theory into power load forecasting. Lyapunov exponents on chaos theoryarecalculatedtojudgewhetheritisachaoticsystem.Delaytimeandembeddingdimension are calculated to reconstruct the phase space and determine the structure of arti?cial neural network ANN. Improved back propagation BP algorithm based on genetic algorithm GA isusedtotrainandforecast.Finally,thispaperusestheloaddataofShaanxiprovincepowergrid ofChinatocompletetheshort-termloadforecasting.Theresultsshowthatthemodelinthispaper ismoree?ectivethanclassicalstandardBPneuralnetworkmodel. 1.Introduction Chaos theory is the important component of the nonlinear science 1. It is the random phenomenawhichappearedinthedeterministicnonlineardynamicsystem.Chaosisnota disorderbuthasadelicateinnerstructure.Itrevealstheorderandregularityhiddenbehind thedisorderedandcomplexphenomena.Sincethe90s,chaostheoryhasbeenwelldeveloped. Manysubjectsarein?ltratedandpromoted2underthistendency.Sotheresearchonchaos getsanaccesstoabreakthrough.Atthemeanwhiletheapplicationaboutchaostheorygetsa widelygrowing. Short-termpowerloadforecastingisamultidimensionalnonlinearsystem.Itiseasy to get the load time series in power system. But these data are nonlinear and di?cult to establishamatchedmathematicalmodeltoforecastthenext-hourload.Recently,morean