Application of a Theorem in Stochastic Models of Elections英文文献资料.docVIP

HindawiPublishingCorporation InternationalJournalofMathematicsandMathematicalSciences Volume2010,ArticleID562813,30pages doi:10.1155/2010/562813 ResearchArticle Application ofaTheoreminStochastic ModelsofElections NormanScho?eld, ChristopherClaassen, UgurOzdemir, 1 1 1 andAlexeiZakharov1,2 1CenterinPoliticalEconomy,Washington University,1BrookingsDrive,SaintLouis,MO63130,USA 2StateUniversity,HigherSchoolofEconomics, 117218Novocheremushkinskaya St.34-1, Apt.68Moscow,Russia Correspondence shouldbeaddressedtoNormanScho?eld, scho?eld.norman@ Received2July2009;Revised2December 2009;Accepted 11February2010 Academic Editor:MartinBohner Copyright q2010NormanScho?eldetal. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction inanymedium,providedtheoriginalworkisproperlycited. Previous empirical research has developed stochastic electoral models for Israel, Turkey, and otherpolities.Theworksuggeststhatconvergence toanelectoralcenteroftenpredictedbyelectoral modelsisanongeneric phenomenon. Inanattempt toexplain nonconvergence, aformal model based onintrinsic valence ispresented. Thistheory showed thattherearenecessary andsu?cient conditions forconvergence. Thenecessaryconditionisthataconvergence coe?cientcisbounded abovebythedimension wofthepolicyspace,whileasu?cientcondition isthatthecoe?cientis boundedaboveby1.Thiscoe?cientisde?nedintermsofthedi?erenceinexogenousvalences,the “spatialcoe?cient”,andtheelectoral variance. Thetheoretical modelisthenappliedtoempirical analyses of elections in the United States and Britain. These empirical models include sociode- mographic valence andelectoral perceptions ofcharacter trait.Itisshownthatthemodelimplies convergence to positions close to the electoral origin. Toexplain party divergence, the model is then extended toincorporate activist valences. This extensio