An Accessible Method for Implementing Hierarchical Models with Spatio-Temporal Abundance Data 英文参考文献.docVIP
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An Accessible Method for Implementing Hierarchical Models with Spatio-Temporal Abundance Data 英文参考文献
AnAccessibleMethodforImplementingHierarchical
ModelswithSpatio-TemporalAbundanceData
BethE.Ross1*,MevinB.Hooten2,3,4,DavidN.Koons5
1Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, United States of America, 2U. S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife
ResearchUnit,FortCollins,Colorado,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3DepartmentofFish,Wildlife,ConservationBiology,ColoradoStateUniversity,FortCollins,Colorado,
UnitedStatesofAmerica,4DepartmentofStatistics,ColoradoStateUniversity,FortCollins,Colorado,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5DepartmentofWildlandResourcesand
theEcologyCenter,UtahStateUniversity,Logan,Utah,UnitedStatesofAmerica
Abstract
Acommongoalinecologyandwildlifemanagementistodeterminethecausesofvariationinpopulationdynamicsover
longperiodsoftimeandacrosslargespatialscales.Manyassumptionsmustneverthelessbeovercometomakeappropriate
inferenceaboutspatio-temporalvariationinpopulationdynamics,suchasautocorrelationamongdatapoints,excesszeros,
andobservationerrorincountdata.Toaddresstheseissues,manyscientistsandstatisticianshaverecommendedtheuseof
Bayesianhierarchicalmodels.Unfortunately,hierarchicalstatisticalmodelsremainsomewhatdifficulttousebecauseofthe
necessaryquantitativebackgroundneededtoimplementthem,orbecauseofthecomputationaldemandsofusingMarkov
ChainMonteCarloalgorithmstoestimateparameters.Fortunately,newtoolshaverecentlybeendevelopedthatmakeit
more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace
Approximation,‘INLA’).WepresentacasestudyusingtwoimportantgamespeciesinNorthAmerica,thelesserandgreater
scaup,todemonstratehowINLAcanbeusedtoestimatetheparametersinahierarchicalmodelthatdecouplesobservation
errorfromprocessvariation,andaccountsforunknownsourcesofexcesszerosaswellasspatialandtemporaldependence
inthedata.Ultimately,ourgoalwastomakeunbiasedinferenceaboutspatialvariationinpopulationtrendsovertime.
Citation: Ross BE, Hooten MB, Koons DN (2012) An Accessible Met
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