Estimating Contact Process Saturation in Sylvatic Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the United States 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Estimating Contact Process Saturation in Sylvatic Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the United States 英文参考文献.doc

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Estimating Contact Process Saturation in Sylvatic Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the United States 英文参考文献

EstimatingContactProcessSaturationinSylvatic TransmissionofTrypanosomacruziintheUnitedStates ChristopherKribs-Zaleta* MathematicsDepartment,UniversityofTexasatArlington,Arlington,Texas,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract AlthoughithasbeenknownfornearlyacenturythatstrainsofTrypanosomacruzi,theetiologicalagentforChagas’disease, areenzooticinthesouthernU.S.,muchremainsunknownaboutthedynamicsofitstransmissioninthesylvaticcyclesthat maintainit,includingtherelativeimportanceofdifferenttransmissionroutes.Mathematicalmodelscanfillingapswhere fieldandlabdataaredifficulttocollect,buttheyneedasinputsthevaluesofcertainkeydemographicandepidemiological quantitieswhichparametrizethemodels.Inparticular,theydeterminewhethersaturationoccursinthecontactprocesses that communicate the infection between the two populations. Concentrating on raccoons, opossums, and woodrats as hosts in Texas and the southeastern U.S., and the vectors Triatoma sanguisuga and Triatoma gerstaeckeri, we use an exhaustive literature review to derive estimates for fundamental parameters, and use simple mathematical models to illustrateamethodforestimatinginfectionratesindirectlybasedonprevalencedata.Resultsareusedtodrawconclusions about saturation and which population density drives each of the two contact-based infection processes (stercorarian/ bloodborneandoral).Analysissuggeststhatthevectorfeedingprocessassociatedwithstercorariantransmissiontohosts andbloodbornetransmissiontovectorsislimitedbythepopulationdensityofvectorswhendealingwithwoodrats,butby that of hosts when dealing with raccoons and opossums, while the predation of hosts on vectors which drives oral transmissiontohostsislimitedbythepopulationdensityofhosts.Confidenceintheseconclusionsislimitedbyasevere paucityofdataunderlyingassociatedparameterestimates,buttheapproachesdevelopedherecanalsobeappliedtothe studyofothervector-borneinfections. Citation:Kribs-ZaletaC(2010)EstimatingContactProcessSaturationinSylvaticTransmissionofTrypanosomacruziintheUnit