Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain 英文参考文献.doc

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Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain 英文参考文献

EstimatingtheHiddenBurdenofBovineTuberculosisin GreatBritain AndrewJ.K.Conlan1*,TrevelyanJ.McKinley1,KaterinaKarolemeas1,EllenBrooksPollock1, AnthonyV.Goodchild2,AndrewP.Mitchell2,ColinP.D.Birch2,RichardS.Clifton-Hadley2, JamesL.N.Wood1 1DiseaseDynamicsUnit(DDU),DepartmentofVeterinaryMedicine,UniversityofCambridge,Cambridge,UnitedKingdom,2AnimalHealthandVeterinaryLaboratories AgencyWeybridge,NewHaw,Addlestone,UnitedKingdom Abstract ThenumberofcattleherdsplacedundermovementrestrictionsinGreatBritain(GB)duetothesuspectedpresenceofbovine tuberculosis(bTB)hasprogressivelyincreasedoverthepast25yearsdespiteanintensiveandcostlytest-and-slaughtercontrol program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months,suggestingthatinfectionmaybepersistingwithinherds.Reactivitytotuberculin,thebasisofdiagnostictesting,is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterizetwowithin-herdtransmissionmodelswithinarigorousinferentialframework.Previouswithin-herdmodelsof bTBhavereliedonad-hocmethodsofparameterizationandusedasinglemodelstructure(SORI)whereanimalsareassumed tobecomedetectablebytestingbeforetheybecomeinfectious.Westudysuchaconventionalwithin-herdmodelofbTBand an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency beforeanimals becomeinfectious(SOR).Underboth models weestimate thatcattle-to-cattletransmissionrates arenon- linearlydensitydependent.Thebasicreproductiveratioforourconventionalwithin-herdmodel,estimatedforscenarioswith nostatutorycontrols,increasesfrom1.5(0.26–4.9;95%CI)inaherdof30cattleupto4.9(0.99–14.0)inaherdof400.Under thismodelweestimatethat50%(33–67)ofrecurrentbreakdownsinBritaincanbeattributedtoinfectionmissedbytuberculin testing.Howeverthisfig