Evidence of Incipient Forest Transition in Southern Mexico 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Evidence of Incipient Forest Transition in Southern Mexico 英文参考文献.doc

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Evidence of Incipient Forest Transition in Southern Mexico 英文参考文献

EvidenceofIncipientForestTransitioninSouthern Mexico Rau′lAbelVaca1*,DuncanJohnGolicher1,2,LuisCayuela3,JennyHewson4,MarcSteininger4 1Divisio′ndelaConservacio′ndelaBiodiversidad,DepartamentodeEcolog?′aySistema′tica Terrestre,ElColegiodelaFronteraSur,SanCristo′baldeLasCasas,Chiapas, Me′xico, 2Centre for Conservation Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Conservation Sciences, Bournemouth University, Fern Barrow, Poole, Dorset, United Kingdom,3A′readeBiodiversidadyConservacio′n,UniversidadReyJuanCarlos,Mo′stoles,Madrid,Espan?a,4ConservationInternational,Arlington,Virginia,UnitedStates ofAmerica Abstract CasestudiesoflandusechangehavesuggestedthatdeforestationacrossSouthernMexicoisaccelerating.However,forest transitiontheorypredictsthattrajectoriesofchangecanbemodifiedbyeconomicfactors,leadingtospatialandtemporal heterogeneityinratesofchangethatmaytaketheformoftheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve(EKC).Thisstudyaimedto assess the evidence regarding potential forest transition in Southern Mexico by classifying regional forest cover change usingLandsatimageryfrom1990throughto2006.Patternsofforestcoverchangewerefoundtobecomplexandnon- linear.Whenratesofforestlosswereaveragedover342municipalitiesusingmixed-effectsmodellingtheresultsshoweda significant(p,0.001)overallreductionofthemeanrateofforestlossfrom0.85%peryearinthe1990–2000periodto0.67% inthe2000–2006period.Theoverallregionalannualrateofdeforestationhasfallenfrom0.33%to0.28%fromthe1990sto 2000s.Ahighproportionofthespatialvariabilityinforestcoverchangecannotbeexplainedstatistically.Howeveranalysis using spline based general additive models detected underlying relationships between forest cover and income or populationdensityofaformconsistentwiththeEKC.Theincipientforesttransitionhasnot,asyet,resultedinwidespread reforestation. Forest recovery remains below 0.20% per year. Reforestation is mostly the result of passive processes associatedwithreductionsintheintensityoflanduse.Deforestationcontinuestooccurathighrate