Prioritizing Child Health Interventions in Ethiopia Modeling Impact on Child Mortality, Life Expectancy and Inequality in Age at Death 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Prioritizing Child Health Interventions in Ethiopia Modeling Impact on Child Mortality, Life Expectancy and Inequality in Age at Death 英文参考文献.doc

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PrioritizingChildHealthInterventionsinEthiopia: ModelingImpactonChildMortality,LifeExpectancyand InequalityinAgeatDeath KristineHus?yOnarheim1*,SolomonTessema2,KjellArneJohansson1,KristianeTislevollEide1 ,Ole FrithjofNorheim1,IngridMiljeteig1 1ResearchGroupforGlobalHealth,Department ofPublicHealthandPrimaryHealthCareandCenter forInternationalHealth,UniversityofBergen,Bergen,Norway, 2InternationalCenterforAIDSCareandTreatmentPrograms(ICAP)Ethiopia,AddisAbaba,Ethiopia Abstract Background:ThefourthMillenniumDevelopmentGoalcallsforatwo-thirdsreductioninunder-5mortalitybetween1990 and2015.Under-5mortalityrateisdeclining,butmanycountriesarestillfarfromachievingthegoal.Effectivechildhealth interventionsthatcouldreducechildmortalityexist,butnationaldecision-makerslackcontextualinformationforpriority settingintheirrespectiveresource-constrainedsettings.Weestimatethepotentialhealthimpactofincreasingcoverageof 14selectedhealthinterventionsonchildmortalityinEthiopia(2011–2015).Wealsoexploretheimpactonlifeexpectancy andinequalityintheageofdeath(Ginihealth ). MethodsandFindings:WeusedtheLivesSavedTooltoestimatepotentialimpactofscaling-up14healthinterventionsin Ethiopia(2011–2015).Interventionsarescaled-upto1)governmenttargetlevels,2)90%coverageand3)90%coverageof the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primaryoutcomemeasures.Weusedmodifiedlifetablestoestimateimpactonlifeexpectancyatbirthandinequalityinthe ageofdeath(Ginihealth).Under-5mortalityratedeclinesfrom101.0in2011to68.8,42.1and56.7per1000livebirthsunder thesethreescenarios.Prioritizingchildhealthwouldalsoincreaselifeexpectancyatbirthfromexpected60.5yearsin2015 to62.5,64.2and63.4yearsandreduceinequalityinageofdeath(Ginihealth)substantiallyfrom0.24to0.21,0.18and0.19. Conclusions:TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalforchildhealthisreachableinEthiopia.Prioritizingchildhealthwouldalso increasetotallifeexpectancyatbirthandreduceinequalityinageofdeaths