Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years 英文参考文献.doc

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Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years 英文参考文献

ProjectedChangestoGrowthandMortalityofHawaiian CoralsovertheNext100Years RonK.Hoeke1,2*,PaulL.Jokiel3,RobertW.Buddemeier4,RussellE.Brainard2 1JointInstituteforMarineandAtmosphericResearch(JIMAR),UniversityofHawaii,Honolulu,Hawaii,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2CoralReefEcosystemDivision(CRED), NOAAPacificIslandsFisheriesScienceCenter,Honolulu,Hawaii,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 3HawaiiInstituteofMarineBiology,UniversityofHawaii,Kaneohe,Hawaii, UnitedStatesofAmerica,4KansasGeologicalSurvey,Lawrence,Kansas,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Recent reviews suggest that the warming and acidification of ocean surface waters predicated by most acceptedclimateprojectionswillleadtomassmortalityanddecliningcalcificationratesofreef-buildingcorals.Thisstudy investigatestheuseofmodelingtechniquestoquantitativelyexamineratesofcoralcoverchangeduetotheseeffects. Methodology/Principal Findings: Broad-scale probabilities of change in shallow-water scleractinian coral cover in the Hawaiian Archipelago for years 2000–2099 A.D. were calculated assuming a single middle-of-the-road greenhouse gas emissionsscenario.Theseprojectionswerebasedonensemblecalculationsofagrowthandmortalitymodelthatusedsea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), observed coral growth (calcification) rates, and observed mortalitylinkedtomasscoralbleachingepisodesasinputs.SSTandCO2predictionswerederivedfromtheWorldClimate ResearchProgramme(WCRP)multi-modeldataset,statisticallydownscaledwithhistoricaldata. Conclusions/Significance:Themodelcalculationsillustrateapracticalapproachtosystematicevaluationofclimatechange effectsoncorals,andalsoshowtheeffectofuncertaintiesincurrentclimatepredictionsandincoraladaptationcapabilities on estimatedchanges in coralcover. Despite theselarge uncertainties, this analysisquantitatively illustrates thatalarge decline in coral cover is highly likely in the 21st Century, but that there are significant spatial and temporal variances in outcomes,evenunderasinglecli