Quantifying Child Mortality Reductions Related to Measles Vaccination 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Quantifying Child Mortality Reductions Related to Measles Vaccination 英文参考文献.doc

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Quantifying Child Mortality Reductions Related to Measles Vaccination 英文参考文献

QuantifyingChildMortalityReductionsRelatedto MeaslesVaccination JeremyD.Goldhaber-Fiebert1,2*,MarcLipsitch3,4,AjayMahal5,AlanM.Zaslavsky6,JoshuaA. Salomon2,5 1CentersforHealthPolicyandPrimaryCareandOutcomesResearch,DepartmentofMedicine,StanfordUniversitySchoolofMedicine,Stanford,California,UnitedStates of America, 2Program in Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 3Department of Epidemiology, HarvardSchoolofPublicHealth,Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4DepartmentofImmunologyandInfectiousDisease,HarvardSchoolofPublicHealth, Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5DepartmentofGlobalHealthandPopulation,HarvardSchoolofPublicHealth,Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesof America,6DepartmentofHealthCarePolicy,HarvardMedicalSchool,Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background:Thisstudycharacterizesthehistoricalrelationshipbetweencoverageofmeaslescontainingvaccines(MCV) andmortalityinchildrenunder5years,withaviewtowardongoingglobaleffortstoreducechildmortality. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using country-level, longitudinal panel data, from 44 countries over the period 1960– 2005, we analyzed the relationship between MCV coverage and measles mortality with (1) logistic regressions for no measles deaths in a country-year, and (2) linear regressions for the logarithm of the measles death rate. All regressions allowedaflexible,non-linearrelationshipbetweencoverageandmortality.Covariatesincludedbirthrate,deathratesfrom other causes, percent living in urban areas, population density, per-capita GDP, use of the two-dose MCV, year, and mortalitycodingsystem.Regressionsusedlaggedcovariates,countryfixedeffects,androbuststandarderrorsclusteredby country.ThelikelihoodofnomeaslesdeathsincreasednonlinearlywithhigherMCVcoverage(ORs:13.8[1.6–122.7]for80– 89%to40.7[3.2–517.6]for$95%),comparedtopre-vaccinationrisklevels.Measlesdeathratesdeclinednonlinearlywith higher MCV coverage, with benefi