Quantifying Aggregated Uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence and Populations at Risk via Efficient Space-Time Geostatistical Joint Simulation 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Quantifying Aggregated Uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence and Populations at Risk via Efficient Space-Time Geostatistical Joint Simulation 英文参考文献.doc

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Quantifying Aggregated Uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence and Populations at Risk via Efficient Space-Time Geostatistical Joint Simulation 英文参考文献

QuantifyingAggregatedUncertaintyinPlasmodium falciparumMalariaPrevalenceandPopulationsatRisk viaEfficientSpace-TimeGeostatisticalJointSimulation PeterW.Gething*,AnandP.Patil,SimonI.Hay SpatialEcologyandEpidemiologyGroup,DepartmentofZoology,UniversityofOxford,Oxford,UnitedKingdom Abstract Riskmapsestimatingthespatialdistributionofinfectiousdiseasesarerequiredtoguidepublichealthpolicyfromlocalto globalscales.Theadventofmodel-basedgeostatistics(MBG)hasallowedthesemapstobegeneratedinaformalstatistical framework,providingrobustmetricsofmapuncertaintythatenhancestheirutilityfordecision-makers.Inmanysettings, decision-makersrequirespatiallyaggregatedmeasuresoverlargeregionssuchasthemeanprevalencewithinacountryor administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches providesuitablemetricsoflocaluncertainty—thefidelityofpredictionsateachmappedpixel—buthavenotbeenadapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authorspresentanewefficientapproximatingalgorithmthatcangenerateforthefirsttimethenecessaryjointsimulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implementedinconjunctionwithanestablishedmodelforP.falciparumallowingrobustestimatesofmeanprevalenceat anyspecifiedlevelofspatialaggregation.Themodelisusedtoprovideestimatesofnationalpopulationsatriskunderthree policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectiousdiseasemapping,canbeextendedtoprovidelarge-scaleaggregatemeasuresappropriatefordecision-makers. Citation: Gething PW, Patil AP, Hay SI (2010) Quantifying Aggregated Uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence and Populations at Risk via EfficientSpace-