Quantifying Species Range Shifts in Relation to Climate Change A Case Study of Abies spp. in China 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Quantifying Species Range Shifts in Relation to Climate Change A Case Study of Abies spp. in China 英文参考文献.doc

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Quantifying Species Range Shifts in Relation to Climate Change A Case Study of Abies spp. in China 英文参考文献

QuantifyingSpecies’RangeShiftsinRelationtoClimate Change:ACaseStudyofAbiesspp.inChina XiaojunKou1*,QinLi2,ShirongLiu3 1StateKeyLaboratoryofEarthSurfaceProcessesandResourceEcology,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing,People’sRepublicofChina,2CollegeofLifeSciences,Beijing NormalUniversity,Beijing,People’sRepublicofChina,3InstituteofForestEnvironmentandEcology,ChineseAcademyofForestry,Beijing,People’sRepublicofChina Abstract Predicting species range shifts in response to climatic change is a central aspect of global change studies. An ever growing number of species have been modeled using a variety of species distribution models (SDMs). However, quantitative studies of the characteristics of range shifts are rare, predictions of range changes are hard to interpret, analyzeandsummarize,andcomparisonsbetweenthevariousmodelsaredifficulttomakewhenthenumberofspecies modeledislarge.Maxentwasusedtomodelthedistributionof12Abiesspp.inChinaundercurrentandpossiblefuture climateconditions.Twofuzzysetdefinedindices,rangeincrementindex(I)andrangeoverlappingindex(O),wereusedto quantifyrangeshiftsofthechosenspecies.Correlationanalyseswereusedtotesttherelationshipsbetweentheseindices andspeciesdistributioncharacteristics. OurresultsshowthatAbiesspp.rangeincrements(I)werehighlycorrelatedwith longitude, latitude, and mean roughness of their current distributions. Species overlapping (O) was moderately, or not, correlated with these parameters. Neither range increments nor overlapping showed any correlation with species prevalence. Thesefuzzysetsdefined indicesprovide idealmeasures ofspecies rangeshifts becausetheyarestableand threshold-free.Theyarereliableindicesthatallowlargenumbersofspeciestobedescribed,modeled,andcomparedona variety oftaxonomic levels. Citation:KouX,LiQ,LiuS(2011)QuantifyingSpecies’RangeShiftsinRelationtoClimateChange:ACaseStudyofAbiesspp.inChina.PLoSONE6(8):e23115. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0023115 Editor:MikeB.Gravenor,UniversityofSwansea,UnitedKingdom ReceivedMarch1