Quantifying the Emergence of Dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam 1998–2009 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Quantifying the Emergence of Dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam 1998–2009 英文参考文献.doc

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Quantifying the Emergence of Dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam 1998–2009 英文参考文献

QuantifyingtheEmergenceofDengueinHanoi, Vietnam:1998–2009 HoangQuocCuong1,2,NguyenTranHien3,TranNhuDuong3,TranVuPhong3,NguyenNhatCam4, JeremyFarrar1,5,VuSinhNam3,KhoaT.D.Thai1,6,7,PeterHorby1,5 * 1Oxford University ClinicalResearchUnit,Wellcome TrustMajorOverseasUnit,Hanoi,Vietnam, 2PasteurInstitute,HoChiMinhCity,Vietnam, 3NationalInstitute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam, 4Preventive Medicine Center, Hanoi, Vietnam, 5Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 6Division of InfectiousDiseases, Tropical Medicine and AIDS, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 7CenterforInfectionandImmunity,AcademicMedicalCenter,UniversityofAmsterdam,Amsterdam,TheNetherlands Abstract Background:Anestimated2.4billionpeopleliveinareasatriskofdenguetransmission,thereforethefactorsdetermining the establishment of endemic dengue in areas where transmission suitability is marginal is of considerable importance. Hanoi, Vietnam is such an area, and following a large dengue outbreak in 2009, we set out to determine if dengue is emerginginHanoi. MethodsandPrincipalFindings:Weundertookatemporalandspatialanalysisof25,983denguecasesnotifiedinHanoi between1998and2009.Agestandardizedincidencerates,standardizedageofinfection,andStandardizedMorbidityRatios (SMR)werecalculated.Aquasi-Poissonregressionmodelwasusedtodetermineifdengueincidencewasincreasingover time. Wavelet analysis was used to explore the periodicity of dengue transmission and the association with climate variables.Afterexcludingthetwomajoroutbreakyearsof1998and2009andcorrecting forchangesinpopulationage structure,weidentifiedasignificantannualincreaseintheincidenceofdenguecasesovertheperiod1999–2008(incidence rateratio =1.38,95%confidenceinterval =1.20–1.58,pvalue =0.002).TheageofnotifieddenguecasesinHanoiishigh, with amedianage of 23 years (mean 26.3years). Afteradjusting for changes in population age structure, there