Serological Testing Versus Other Strategies for Diagnosis of Active Tuberculosis in India A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 英文参考文献.docVIP

Serological Testing Versus Other Strategies for Diagnosis of Active Tuberculosis in India A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 英文参考文献.doc

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SerologicalTestingVersusOtherStrategiesforDiagnosis ofActiveTuberculosisinIndia:ACost-Effectiveness Analysis DavidW.Dowdy1,KarenR.Steingart2,MadhukarPai3* 1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America, 2Department of Health Services, UniversityofWashingtonSchoolofPublicHealth,Seattle,Washington,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3DepartmentofEpidemiology,Biostatistics,andOccupationalHealth, McGillUniversityMontrealChestInstitute,Montreal,Canada Abstract Background: Undiagnosed and misdiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) drives the epidemic in India. Serological (antibody detection)TBtestsarenotrecommendedbyanyagency,butwidelyusedinmanycountries,includingtheIndianprivate sector.Thecostandimpactofusingserologycomparedwithotherdiagnostictechniquesisunknown. MethodsandFindings:TakingapatientcohortconservativelyequaltotheannualnumberofserologicaltestsdoneinIndia (1.5millionadultssuspectedofhavingactiveTB),weuseddecisionanalysistoestimatecostsandeffectivenessofsputum smearmicroscopy(US$3.62fortwosmears),microscopyplusautomatedliquidculture(mycobacteriumgrowthindicator tube[MGIT],US$20/test),andserologicaltesting(anda-tbELISA,US$20/test).Dataontestaccuracyandcostswereobtained frompublishedliterature.WeadoptedtheperspectiveoftheIndianTBcontrolsectorandananalysisframeof1year.Our primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. We performed one-way sensitivityanalysisonallmodelparameters,withmultiwaysensitivityanalysisonvariablestowhichthemodelwasmost sensitive.If used instead of sputum microscopy, serology generated an estimated 14,000 more TB diagnoses, but also 121,000morefalse-positivediagnoses,102,000fewerDALYsaverted,and32,000moresecondaryTBcasesthanmicroscopy, at approximately four times the incremental cost (US$47.5 million versus US$11.9 million). When added to high-quality sputumsmears,MGITculturewasestimatedtoavert130,000incrementalDALYsatanincrementalcostofUS$213per

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