Size Matters The Number of Prostitutes and the Global HIVAIDS Pandemic 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Size Matters The Number of Prostitutes and the Global HIVAIDS Pandemic 英文参考文献.doc

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Size Matters The Number of Prostitutes and the Global HIVAIDS Pandemic 英文参考文献

SizeMatters:TheNumberofProstitutesandtheGlobal HIV/AIDSPandemic JohnR.Talbott* AfricansAgainstAids,Inc.,NewYork,NewYork,UnitedStatesofAmerica Background.HIV/AIDSprevalenceratesacrosscountriesoftheworldvarymorethan500-foldfrom.06%inHungaryto33.4% inSwaziland.Oneofthemostcitedresearchpapersinthefield,utilizingcrosscountryregressionanalysistoanalyzeother correlates with this HIV prevalence data, is flawed in that it weights each country’s results by the country’s population. Methodology/Principal Findings.Basedoncross-countrylinearandmultipleregressionsusingnewlygathereddatafrom UNAIDS,thenumberoffemalecommercialsexworkersasapercentageofthefemaleadultpopulationisrobustlypositively correlatedwithcountrywideHIV/AIDSprevalencelevels.Confirmingearlierstudies,female illiteracylevels,genderilliteracy differencesandincomeinequalitywithincountriesarealsosignificantlypositivelycorrelatedwithHIV/AIDSlevels.Muslimsas apercentageofthepopulation,itselfhighlycorrelatedwithcountrycircumcisionratesandpreviouslyfoundtobenegatively correlated with HIV/AIDS prevalence, is insignificant when the percentage of commercial sex workers in a population is includedintheanalysis.Conclusions/Significance.Thispaperprovidesstrongevidencethatwhenconductedproperly,cross countryregressiondatadoesnotsupportthetheorythatmalecircumcisionisthekeytoslowingtheAIDSepidemic.Rather,it is the number of infected prostitutes in a country that is highly significant and robust in explaining HIV prevalence levels across countries. An explanation is offered for why Africa has been hit the hardest by the AIDS pandemic and why there appearstobeverylittlecorrelationbetweenHIV/AIDSinfectionratesandcountrywealth. Citation: Talbott JR (2007) Size Matters: The Number of Prostitutes and the Global HIV/AIDS Pandemic. PLoS ONE 2(6): e543. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0000543 INTRODUCTION infected countries, prevalence rates for CSW’s appear to be significantly higher than the general populace and seem to be a leading indic