Using a decline in serum hCG between days 0–4 to predict ectopic pregnancy treatment success after single-dose methotrexate a retrospective cohort study 英文参考文献.docVIP
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Using a decline in serum hCG between days 0–4 to predict ectopic pregnancy treatment success after single-dose methotrexate a retrospective cohort study 英文参考文献
Skubiszetal.BMCPregnancyandChildbirth2013,13:30
/1471-2393/13/30
RESEARCH ARTICLE
OpenAccess
UsingadeclineinserumhCGbetweendays0–4
topredictectopicpregnancytreatmentsuccess
aftersingle-dosemethotrexate:aretrospective
cohortstudy
MonikaSkubisz1,2*?,PhilipDutton3?,WilliamColinDuncan3,AndrewWHorne3andStephenTong1?
Abstract
Background:Thecurrentmeasureoftreatmentefficacyofsingle-dosemethotrexateforectopicpregnancy,isafall
inserumhCGof≥15%betweendays4–7oftreatment,whichhasapositivepredictivevalueof93%fortreatment
success.TwosmallstudieshaveproposedafallinserumhCGbetweendays0–4aftertreatmentconferssimilar,
earlierprognosticinformation,withpositivepredictivevaluesof100%and88%fortreatmentsuccess.Wesoughtto
validatethisinalarge,independentcohortbecauseofthepotentiallysignificantclinicalimplications.
Methods:Weconductedaretrospectivestudyofwomen(n=206)treatedwithsingle-dosemethotrexatefor
ectopicpregnancy(pre-treatmentserumhCGlevels≤3000IU/L)atScottishhospitalsbetween2006–2011.Women
weredividedintotwocohortsbasedonwhethertheirserumhCGlevelsroseorfellbetweendays0– 4after
methotrexate.Treatmentoutcomesofwomenineachcohortwerecompared,andthetestperformance
characteristicscalculated.Thismethodologywasrepeatedforthecurrentmeasure(≥15%fallinserumhCG
betweendays4–7oftreatment)andanalternateearlymeasure(20%fallinserumhCGbetweendays0– 4of
treatment),andallthreemeasureswerecomparedfortheirabilitytopredictmedicaltreatmentsuccess.
Results:Inourcohort,thepositivepredictivevalueofthecurrentclinicalmeasurewas89%(95%CI84-94%)
(121/136).AfallingserumhCGbetweendays0–4predictedtreatmentsuccessin85%(95%CI79-92%)ofcases
(94/110)anda20%fallinserumhCGbetweendays0–4predictedtreatmentsuccessin94%(95%CI88-100%)of
cases(59/63).Therewasnosignificantdifferenceintheabilityoftheseteststopredictmedicaltreatmentsuccess.
Conclusions:WehaveverifiedthatadeclineinserumhCGbetweendays0–4aftermethotrexatetreatmentfor
ectopicpregnancies,withpre-treatmentserumhCGlevels≤3000IU/L,providesanearlyindicationoflikelihood
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