基于改进KNN算法的风电功率实时预测研究.pdfVIP

学兔兔 第5l卷 第24期 电测与仪表 V01．5l No．24 2014年 12月25日 Electrical Measurement＆ Instrumentation Dec．25。2014 基于改进KNN算法的风电功率实时预测研究术 杨茂 ，贾云彭 ，穆钢 ，严干贵 ，刘佳 (1．／j-,北电力大学电气工程学院，吉林 吉林132012；2．泰安东平供电公司，山东泰安271500) 摘要：大规模风电并入电网将对电网的规划建设、分析控制以及电能质量等方面产生显著的影响，高精度的超 短期风电功率预测可以对含大规模风电电力系统的安全调度和稳定运行提供可靠的依据。文章对风电功率的 超短期预测方法进行了研究，以混沌理论为基础，对相空间重构参数进行了计算，提出了基于改进KNN(K— Nearest Neighbor)算法的风电功率实时预测方法，并且应用多个评价指标来对预测结果进行评价，以吉林西部 某风电场实测数据为例，验证了模型的有效性。， 关键词：风力发电；功率预测；混沌时间序列；相空间重构；C—C方法；KNN算法 中图分类号：TM71 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001．1390(2014)24-0038-06 Wind power real——time prediction research based on the improved KNN algorithm Yang Mao ，Jia Yunpeng ，Mu Gang ，Yan Gangui ，Liu Jia ( ．School of Electrical Engineering，Northeast Dianli University，Jilin 132012，Jilin，China． 2．Taian Dongping Power Supply Company，Taian 271500，Shandong，China) Abstract：Integration of large-scale wind power into the power grid will greatly influence grid planning and construc— tion，analysis and control，and energy quality．Accurate short-term wind power forecasting can provide a reliable basis for safety dispatching and stable operation of the power system containing large-scale wind power generating units． This paper studied wind power short—term prediction methods．With the chaos theory as the basis，the parameters for phase space reconstruction were calculated，and a wind power real—time prediction method based on the improved KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor)algorithm was proposed．Multiple evaluation indexes were applied to evaluate the forecast results，and the effectiveness of the model was verified with the measured data of a wind farm in the west of Jilin as the sample． Key words：wind power