灰色系统与时间序列在高速铁路沉降变形预测中的应用.docVIP

灰色系统在高速铁路沉降变形预测中的应用 摘 要：本文介绍了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型、时间序列二次指数平滑模型的基本原理，给出了模型精度评定的方法。用MATLAB编程实现模型的建立并对高速铁路沉降变形进行分析与预测，通过工程实例对比分析两种模型的预测效果，结果表明时间序列二次指数平滑模型较适合短期或中期变形趋势呈线性或微小波形的变形分析与预测，而GM(1,1)模型对短期呈线性或指数分布趋势的有较好的效果；时间序列二次指数平滑模型的可靠性与准确度较GM(1,1)模型高。 关键词：高铁沉降；灰色系统；时间序列；变形预测 The Application of Grey System and Time series in High-speed Railway Settlement Deformation Prediction Yuan Mingyue1，2, Zhou Lv1，2 ,Wen Hongyan1，2 ,Han Yakun1，2（1）College of Surveying,Mapping and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, Guangxi, 54100;2) Guangxi Key Laboratory for Spatial Information and Geomatics, Guilin, Guangxi, 541006）Abstract: This paper introduces the basic principle of grey system GM (1, 1) model and time-series second exponential smoothing model and gives the method of model accuracy evaluation. This paper uses MATLAB programming to establish models to analyze and predict the settlement deformation of high-speed railway, through the engineering examples comparing and analyzing the prediction effect of two models, the result shows that time-series second exponential smoothing model is more suitable for short-term and longer term deformation analysis and prediction and deformation trend was linear or exponential; GM (1,1) model shows a better effect in short-term deformation analysis and prediction and deformation trend was linear or exponential; the reliability and accuracy of the time-series analysis model second exponential smoothing is much higher than GM (1,1) model. Key words: settlement of high-speed railway; Grey System; time series; deformation prediction 1 引言 随着人类社会的进步和国民经济的发展，工程建设的进程越来越快，从而对现代工程建筑物的规模、造型、难度提出了更高要求。 高速铁路作为国民经济的大动脉是一个典型的庞 国家自然科学基金项目（编号，广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室资助课题（编号：桂科能1207115-06，1103108-02），研究生教育创新计划项目（YCSZ2012083），大学生创新创业训练计划项目（2012CHCX001）。 作者简介：袁明月(1990-)，女，河南南阳南召县人，本科生，变形监测与数据处理。E-mail：770695716@，手机 大复杂而精细的系统工程，要求各个环节精准施工。在高速铁路建设中，高速铁路带来的高要求使得变形监测工作的意义更加重要。通过定期对建筑物进行沉降观测，掌握其变形规律