2008年徐州地区严重秋冬连旱成因分析.pdfVIP

安徽农业科学，Joumal of 加由uí A伊i. Scí. 2011 ,39( 12) :7525 -7526 ,7530 资任编精黄小旅费任校对卢篇 2008 年徐州地区严嚣秋冬连阜成因分析 赵杰，吕翔\彭明艳，张百战，孙建印 (江苏省徐州市气象局，江苏徐州 221002) 摘要 [阔的]研究汉J08Jf徐州地区严重秋冬逃早的成因。[方法]利用观测站降水资料和 NCEP/NCAR ~导分析资料，分析则8 年 10 月时2009 Jf 1 月徐州地区秋牟迹早期间的坏流背景、直边动、气温异常及水汽条件的变化，揭示此次秋冬遥卒的成阂。[结果]2C朋 年秋、冬李徐州地区长时间受稳定形势控制，处于东部沿海槽后，高空盛行下i元气流;尚且L槽残废明显偏弱，再加上创高位置偏东，强度 偏弱，印度洋和南海的水汽输送条件不利。秋季偏暖，冷空气势力偏弱;入冬以来虽有几次冷空气活动，但影响主体偏北，再加上南方回E i.l气流不充足，二者缺少很好的结合，使得冷空气影响时以大风降iJ.夭气为主，降水出现较少。[结论]该研究为该地区千卒的预防提供 理论依据。 关键词秋冬迷卒;成因分析:徐州地区 中团分类号 5423 X献标识码 A 文章编号仍17 -6611 (2011) 12 -07525 -02 Aoaly耐 00 伽e Re翩。，ns for co翩翩cutive Severe Droughts in AutuJnn and Winter in Xuzbou in 2制þ8 ZHAO Jie et aI ( X皿hou Meteorological Bur暗au of Jiar耶u Pr旧vince ， Xuzhou , Jiangsu 221∞2) Abstract [ Obj创刊] The aim was 协刷dy the rea翩翩 for cor刷刷Itive severe 命。咱恼 in autumn and winter. [Me由叫] By dint of precipi- tation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in observatory station , the circulation back伊Ound ， vertical movement , abnormal temperature and changes of water vapor conditions ín Xuzhou from October 2∞8 to J刨出ry2仪渺 were expounded to reveal the causes for consecutive drought in au灿m川n 皿削dw川i酣孔 [Result] Xu时t k恤@四ug}阱1 ，出e downward airslream prevailing; theωuth trough intensity w，幽 weak ， and in addition ωthe e嗣t subtropical hi快 and weak in怡nsi­ ty. the water vapor transportation condition in Indian Ocean and South Sea w幽 unfavorable. The 剧伽mnw翩 wann and the cold air w幽 weak; ever since winter. there were several cold air activities. But the inf1uencing 加dy w嗣 in the east. and the 回uth wann and wet airslream w嗣 insufficient. Thus. they coul巾t met , which resulted into gale and lower temperature and less precipitation when under the inf1uence of cold a让. [Conclusion] 切le study provided theoretical b嗣is for the prevention of drought in 胁e area. Key word圈 Co刷刷utive drought in autumn and winter; Ca山es analys