衡阳市农业旱涝灾害发生规律及大灾预测_刘兰芳.pdfVIP

( Ch inese Journal ofAgrom eteorology) 2009, 30( 1): 118- 120 * 刘兰芳, 肖志成, 谭青山 ( , 421008) : , , , 0a, : ; , ; ; , , 1986- 2006, , : ; ; Occurrence ofAgriculturalFloods andDroughts and Forecasting of SeriousDisasters inHengyang City LIU Lan-fang, XIAO Zh-i cheng, TA Qing-shan ( Departm ent of Resources Environm ent and Tourism M anagement, H engyang Norm alUn iversity, H engyang 421008, Ch ina ) Abstract:Hengyang City is an mi portant agricultural production base in Hunan Province. The agriculture w as mainly in rain-fed and often suffered from drought and flood risk, especially high risk of drought. The historical disastersw ere statist-i cally analyzed by using the disaster data in the last 0 years inHengyang. The results indicated that the agricultural drought hazard occurredmore frequently than the agricu ltural flood hazard in Hengyang. The agriculture drought appeared much in the summer and autumn, while the agricultural flood often occurred in the beginning of the summer and the end of the spring. The frequency of the agriculturaldrought hazardw as b igger in the South than in theNorth. The Frequency of the ag- ricultural drought hazardw as b iggest in them iddle ofHengyang, w hile the frequency of agricultural flood hazardw as bigger in the North than in the South. The frequency of agricultural flood hazardw as bigger in the Xiangjiang River than in the east mountainous region and middle hill regions. The occurrence of serious floods and droughtswere forecasted by grey theoret-i calmodeling. The smi ulated resu ltsw ere consistent w ith the disasters occurred in 1986- 2006. It was forecasted that there wou ld be the risk year of serious drought in 2012 and the risk year of