气候变化下罗布麻潜在地理分布区预测.doc

气候变化下罗布麻潜在地理分布区预测 　　[摘要]罗布麻为夹竹桃科多年生草本植物，其叶可以入药，茎秆作为重要的纺织品原材料，预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响及其保护该资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用罗布麻的44个地理分布点和19个环境因子图层，采用MaxEnt模型分析了罗布麻在我国的潜在地理分布，并基于该模型预测政府间气候?化专门委员会（IPCC AR5）发布的BCC_CSM11气候模式下2050年及2070年的RCP26，RCP85气候情景下罗布麻的潜在地理分布范围。结果表明：最冷月低温（bio6）、年平均温（bio1）、最冷季平均降雨量（bio19）、最湿季平均温（bio8）是影响罗布麻分布的主导环境因子；在当前气候条件下，罗布麻的适宜生境占我国总面积的1194%，集中分布在新疆中部，甘肃北部，内蒙古南部，宁夏北部，陕西北部及中部，山西南部，河南北部及中部，河北中部及南部，山东，天津，辽宁南部及北京的部分区域。由模型预测可知：2050―2070年，RCP26，RCP85气候情景下，罗布麻适宜生境都有所减少 [关键词]潜在地理分布；气候变化；MaxEnt模型；罗布麻；药用植物 [Abstract]Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant， its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP26 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month， annual mean air temperature， precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate， the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China， the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang， in the northern part of Gansu， in the southern part of Neimeng， in the northern part of Ningxia， in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi， in the southern part of Shanxi， in the middle and northern part of Henan，