人均综合用水量方法预测需水量_观察未来社会用水有效途径.pdf

　2004 年3 月 地下水 Mar . , 2004 第26 卷　第1 期　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 Gr und w ater　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 V l. 26　NO. 1 ( 水利部, 北京 宣武 100053) [ ] 科学的需水预测是水资源规划和供水工程建设的重要依据。过去, 国水资源规划部门对需水量的预测普遍偏 高, 造成对水规划和供水工程在不同程度上的误导。1987 年, 笔者在分析研究国内外预测资料的基础上, 提出人均综合用水量加趋 势微调方法( 以下简称人均用水量法) 预测全国需水量, 实践证明这方法是有效的, 成果是可信的。本文介绍这 一创新的预测方法 的概念与其应用, 与过去有关部门预测成果进行比较, 并展望本世纪 国水资源可持续利用的前景, 以供水资源规划和供水工程 建设部门参考。 [ ] 人均综合用水量法; 社会用水; 预测 [ ] T V212[ ] A [ ] 1004- 1184( 2004) 01- 000 1- 05 Forecast Water demand by the method of Comprehensive Water use per capita Effective Way for Observing Water Use in Future Society Ke Lidan ( Water Res urces M inistry P. R. C. Beijing , 100053) : Abstract T he scientific w ater demand f recast is an imp rtant basis f r w ater res ur ces planning and w ater supply pr ject c nstructi n. In the past, the planning department f water r es urces in ur c untry gener ally f recasted the w ater demand n the high side, w hich has mislead the w ater planning and supply pr ject in different extent . In 1978, On the basis f study and analysis the relevant f r ecast data at h me and , abr ad the auth r puts f rward t f recast w ater demand f the w h le c untry by the c mprehensive w ater use per capita and tr end inching adjustment meth d ( hereinafter the w ater use per capita meth d) , the practice . has been pr ved that this meth d is effectively and its result is credible T he article intr duces its c ncept and applicati n and c mpares w ith the past achievement f relevant departments t view f the perspective f sustainable utilizati n f w ater res urces f ur c untry in this century, f r referenc