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金融密码学展望Perspectives on Financial Cryptography
Cost of breaking SC’s to rise P12: Smart cards will be “broken into” on a regular basis, but the cost of doing so will rise dramatically over the next decade. Smaller feature sizes make requisite lab equipment more expensive. Vast number of installed smart cards will stimulate further investment into security measures and lower production costs. Compare: bank safes. (1997) Cost of breaking SC’s to rise P12: Smart cards will be “broken into” on a regular basis, but the cost of doing so will rise dramatically over the next decade. P12: TRUE. (Depending on def’n of “regular”) We are presumably getting better at designing secure chips. P12’: RFID chip security will be the most interesting battleground. (These are not so “smart”, but they will be pervasive.) (2006) No large-value digital coins P13: Digital coins will not be used for large-value transactions. In a coin-based system (as opposed to an account-based system), possession of bits means possession of value. Replication! Identification of double-spenders is unlikely to be a sufficient deterrent to prevent major fraud. (Compare with credit-card theft .) (1997) No large-value digital coins P13: Digital coins will not be used for large-value transactions. P13 TRUE (also true for small-value; digital coins aren’t being used at all). P13’: Digital coins will never make it – all electronic payment systems will essentially “account-based”. (2006) No transferable coins! P14: Payment schemes with off-line coin transfers between users won’t make it. Need will decrease dramatically as every device and individual can be “on-line” whenever it wants to. No good business model: what does issuer gain by allowing transferability? (Extra “float” doesn’t compensate for extra risk. Compare with early US bank notes...) (1997) No transferable coins! P14: Payment schemes with off-line coin transfers between users won’t make it. P14 TRUE. P14’: (Same as P13’: digital coin systems won’t make it in general.) (2006) Micropayment
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