长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征 - 湖泊科学.pdfVIP

J. Lake Sci.(湖泊科学) , 2008, 20(1): 123-128 . E-mail: jlakes@ ©2008 by Journal of Lake Sciences 长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征* 苏布达 1,2 , 姜 彤 1,2 (1: 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心, 北京 100081) (2: 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008) 摘 要: 在 1960-2005 年长江流域 147 气象观测站汛期 4-9 月逐日降水资料基础上, 通过计算逐站大于 95th 强降水及其间隔 天数、小于 1.27mm/d 的持续天数, 分析长江流域降水极值时间序列的时空分布特征, 并建立概率分布模式 . 研究发现, 长江 上游四川盆地附近及中下游鄱阳湖流域东南部是汛期强降水中心, 也是长江流域强降水最集中发生的地区 . 汛期降水强度小 于 1.27mm/d 的天数, 在上游干流、岷沱江流域、乌江上游地区为多. 但此处干旱持续天数最短, 干旱形式并不严重. 而在金 沙江上、下游, 洞庭湖流域, 鄱阳湖流域东南部支流及下游干流区干旱持续天数较长. 长江流域大于 95th 强降水的间隔天数 与小于 1.27mm/d 的干旱持续天数服从 Weibull- Ⅱ型分布.分布参数变化的模式较准确的反映降水极值时间序列的时空变化特征. 关键词: 降水极值; Weibull 分布; 长江流域 Distribution feature of time series of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin SU Buda1,2 JIANG Tong1,2 (1: Laboratory for Climate Studies , National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, P. R. China) (2: Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China) Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River Basin during the flood season (April to September) for 1960-2005, extreme high precipitation (percentile ＞95th) and its time gap, days with precipitation＜1.27mm/d and its duration were calculated. Accordingly, spatial distributions and temporal sequences of extreme precipitation events had been analyzed, and the probability model was established. Research results showed that Sichuan Basin in the upper reaches and southeastern Lake Poyang Catchment in the mid-lower reaches were the high precipitation center of the Yangtze River Basin with centralized extreme event. Total number of days with precipitation ＜1.27mm/d is more in the mainstream section, Minjiang-Tuojiang Catchment and upper Wujiang Catchment than any other area of the Yangtze River Basin. However, due to shorter lasting period of events with ＜1.27mm/d, it did not create serious d