基于计量经济学模型的汽车保有量预测.pdfVIP

DOI 10 . 16097 /j . cnki . 1009 -6744 . 2005 . 02 . 013 5 2 V o l. 5 No . 2 2005 4 Jo urnal of T ran spo r tatio n Sy stem s Eng ineering and Inf or m atio n Techno lo g y April 2005 1009 -6744 ( 2005) 02-0074-05 龚华炜, 靳文舟 (, 510640) 　汽车保有量与社会经济的发展有着密切关系,通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽 车保有量和社会经济有关指标的 数关系,可以较为准确地预测一个地区短期内的汽 车保有量.本文根据广东省的统计数据,给出建立计量经济学预测模型和进行各项检验 的详细过程,并根据模型预测了广东省 2004年和 2005年的汽车保有量. 　计量经济学模型; 广东省; 汽车保有量; 预测 　 49 1. 113 U Forecast of Vehicle Population Based on Model of Econometrics GON G Hua-w ei, JIN W en-zh ou ( Co llege o f Tr affic and Co mmunica tio ns, So uth China U niv er sity of T echnolog y , Gu ang zho u 510 64 0, China ) Abstract 　 Th ere is a close r ela tio nship betw een v ehicle population and dev elopm ent o f society and economy . By esta blished a model of econom etrics and the p ap er set s up the r elation o f functio n o f v ehicle po pulatio n a nd dev elopm ent of society and eco no my, co mpa rativ ely f o recast v ehicle population of so m e r eg io n in a shor t tim e. Based on the statistic da ta o f Gu angdo ng , this pap er intr oduces the concrete process o f set ting up eco nom et rics mo del a nd fo rcasting the v ehicle po pulatio n of Gu ang dong pr ovince in 2004 a nd 2005. Key words 　model o f econom etrics; province of Gua ng do ng ; v ehicle po pulatio n; f o recast CLC number 　 U 4 91. 113 0　　　 , , ,, ,, , . , . , . , ,, , . . , , , 、, . .,, ,( )、