analyzing the use of advance booking curve in …（分析使用预订曲线u2026）.pdf

Analyzing the Use of Advance Booking Curve in Forecasting Hotel Reservations ABSTRACT. Although there is considerable interest in advance bookings model as a forecasting method in hotel industry, there has been little research done to analyze the use of advance booking curve in forecasting hotel reservations. The mainstream of advance booking models reviewed in the literature uses only the bookings-on-hand data on a certain day and ignores the booking data beforehand. It is also common industry practice using only the current bookings-on-hand and ignoring the booking data beforehand in forecasting. This empirical study analyzes the entire booking dataset in one year provided by Hotel ICON, and identifies the trends and patterns in the data. The analysis demonstrates a more in-depth understanding of advance bookings modeling and the use of advance booking curve in forecasting hotel reservations at property level. KEYWORDS. Advance bookings model, revenue management, forecasting, booking curve INTRODUCTION Revenue management in hospitality is concerned with revenue maximization through the manipulation of room rates offered to customers (Sanchez Satir, 2005). Implicit in managing revenue is the pricing of different room types, inventory control, allocation of stock to different distribution channels, and forecasting demand. It is widely accepted that revenue management is inextricably associated with forecasting room demand (Anderson Xie, 2010; Andrew, Cranage Lee, 1990; Cranage, 2003; Cross, 1997; Cross, Higbie Cross, 2009; Helsel Cullen, 2006; Kiely, 2008; Law, 1998; Law, 2004; Orkin, 1998; Schwartz Cohen, 2004; Upchurch, Ellis Seo, 2004; Weatherford, Kimes Scott, 2001; Yuksel, 2007) and the development of a good forecasting system is vitally important for successful revenue management i