陈娜2015-10-23基于信息熵和模糊综合评判法的震后水库风险评估-修改稿课件.doc

基于信息熵和模糊综合评判法的震后水库风险评估 陈娜1 曹震2 刘帅3 （1.黄河勘测规划设计有限公司，河南 郑州，450003;2.华北水利水电大学，河南 郑州，450011 3.大连理工大学城市学院, 辽宁 大连, 116600) 摘要：地震之后应及时对震后水库的风险等级进行合理评估。因此通过建立震后水库的风险等级评判模型，并结合信息熵和模糊数学理论的方法客观的评估震后水库的风险等级。以江油地区震后水库震损统计数据资料为基础求出各评判因素重要度，运用信息熵对评价体系中的各级指标权重进行客观评估，同时综合考虑重要度因素对评价体系的影响，两者有机构成综合权重，通过模糊理论的隶属函数评判体系中单因素，最终采用模糊加权法对震后水库风险等级进行综合评估。以江油地区的许家桥水库为例，运用信息熵和模糊综合评判的方法对该震后水库进行风险评估。经计算表明，该水库为高风险，与实际调查情况相符，从而验证该法的合理性和适用性。 关键词：震后水库；信息熵；风险等级；模糊综合评估法； 中图分类号：TV62+1 文献标志码：A Risk Assessment of Reservoir after Earthquake Based on Information Entropy and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method CHEN Na1, CAO Zhen2, LIU Shuai3 （1. Yellow River Engineering Planning and Design Co.Ltd. Henan, Zhengzhou 450003； 2.North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Henan Zhengzhou 450011; 3. City Institute of Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning Dalian 116600） Abstract: The risk rank of reservoir after earthquake could be timely evaluated after earthquake. Therefore, the risk assessment model of reservoir after earthquake need to be established and combined with information entropy and fuzzy mathematics theory to assess the risk level of the reservoir. Based on statistical data of Jianyou area’s earthquake damaged reservoirs to calculate the importance of evaluation system, therefore, adopting entropy to evaluate all levels indexes weights. Considering importance factors to the influence of assessing system, both factors to form comprehensive weight; Moreover, applying membership function to built the single factor evaluation and adopting fuzzy weighting method comprehensively to evaluate reservoir after earthquake. Taking Xujiaqiao reservoir as a case, adopting information entropy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk rank of the reservoir. The calculated result showed that reservoir was at high-risk rank , which consistent with the actual situation. The case verified the practicability and rationality of risk