新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评价-北大国家发展研究院bimba.pdf

No. C2013003 2013-11 新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估 ——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给* † ‡ § 张川川 John Giles 赵耀辉 摘要 本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据，采用断点回归和双重差分识 别策略，估计了 “新农保”对农村老年人收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给的影响。 研究结果显示，“新农保”养老金收入显著提高了农村老年人的收入水平、减少了贫困的发 生、提高了其主观福利，并在一定程度上促进了家庭消费和减少了老年人劳动供给。进一步 的研究显示，健康状况较差的老年人受到的政策影响更大更显著，表明“新农保”的政策影 响存在异质性。 关键词 新型农村社会养老保险 政策评估 断点回归 双重差分 Policy Evaluation of China’s New Rural Pension Program: Income, Poverty, Expenditure, Subjective Wellbeing and Labor Supply Abstract Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and employing regression discontinuity method and difference-in-differences strategy, this paper evaluates the policy effects of China’s new rural pension program (NRPP) on income, poverty status, expenditure, subjective wellbeing and labor supply of the rural elderly. Empirical results show that, pension benefits of NRPP significantly increased personal income, decreased the incidence rate of * 作者感谢Petra Todd 、Albert Park 、雷晓燕、沈艳、徐建国、张丹丹、CCER 劳动经济学讨论组成员和经济 学季刊(2013)研讨会与会者的评论和修改意见。作者感谢国家自然科学基金、世界银行(7159234) 和美国国立老龄研究院(1R01AG037031)的资助。 † 中央财经大学经济学院，电子邮箱：ccz.zhang@ 。 ‡世界银行发展研究部，电子邮箱：jgiles@ 。 §北京大学国家发展研究院，电子邮箱：yhzhao@ 。 poverty, enhanced subject-wellbeing, and marginally increased household expenditure and decreased labor supply. Further studies show that policy effects are larger and more significant for people with poor health status, suggesting heterogeneity of the policy effects. Key words: New Rural Pension; Policy Evaluation; Regression Discontinuity Design; Difference-in-differences JEL: H55 J26 I38 新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估 ——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给