assessing chemical mixtures and human health use of bayesian belief net analysis评估化学混合物和人类健康使用贝叶斯信念网络分析.pdfVIP

Journal of Environmental Protection, 2012, 3, 462-468 /10.4236/jep.2012.36056 Published Online June 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jep) Assessing Chemical Mixtures and Human Health: Use of Bayesian Belief Net Analysis 1 2 2 Anindya Roy , Neil J. Perkins , Germaine M. Buck Louis 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, USA; 2Division of Epidemiology, Statistics Prevention Research, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health Human Development, Rockville, USA. Email: anindya@ Received April 18th, 2012; revised May 13th, 2012; accepted June 11th, 2012 ABSTRACT Background: Despite humans being exposed to complex chemical mixtures, much of the available research continues to focus on a single compound or metabolite or a select subgroup of compounds inconsistent with the nature of human exposure. Uncertainty regarding how best to model chemical mixtures coupled with few analytic approaches remains a formidable challenge and served as the impetus for the study. Objectives: To identify the polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener(s) within a chemical mixture that was most associated with an endometriosis diagnosis using novel graphical modeling techniques. Methods: Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models were developed and empirically assessed in a cohort comprising 84 women aged 18 - 40 years who underwent a laparoscopy or laparotomy between 1999 and 2000; 79 (94%) women had serum concentrations for 68 PCB congeners quantified. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) for endometriosis were estimated for individual PCB congeners using BBN models. Results: PCB congeners #114 (AOR = 3.01; 95% CI = 2.25, 3.77) and #136 (AOR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.03, 2.55) were associated with an endometriosis diagnosis. Combinations