comparison between neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting chaotic traffic volumes对比神经网络和自适应神经模糊推理系统混乱的交通预测卷.pdfVIP

Journal of Intelligent Learning Systems and Applications, 2012, 4, 247-254 247 / 10.4236/jilsa.2012.44025 Published Online November 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jilsa) Comparison between Neural Network and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Chaotic Traffic Volumes 1 2 Jiin-Po Yeh , Yu-Chen Chang 1Department of Civil and Ecological Engineering, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan; 2Institute of Civil Engineering Tech- nology, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. Email: jpyeh@.tw Received May 26th, 2012; revised June 19th, 2012; accepted June 26th, 2012 ABSTRACT This paper applies both the neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting short-term chaotic traffic volumes and compares the results. The architecture of the neural network consists of the input vector, one hidden layer and output layer. Bayesian regularization is employed to obtain the effective number of neurons in the hidden layer. The input variables and target of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are the same as those of the neural network. The data clustering technique is used to group data points so that the membership functions will be more tai- lored to the input data, which in turn greatly reduces the number of fuzzy rules. Numerical results indicate that these two models have almost the same accuracy, while the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system takes more time to train. It is also shown that although the effective number of neurons in the hidden layer is less than half the number of the input elements, the neural network can have satisfactory performance. Keywords: Neural Network; Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System; Chaotic Traffic Volumes; State Space Reconstruction 1. Introduction