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comparison of single-stage and staged progression models for hivaids transmission单级和阶段性发展模型的比较条件的传播.pdf

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comparison of single-stage and staged progression models for hivaids transmission单级和阶段性发展模型的比较条件的传播

Hindawi Publishing Corporation International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences Volume 2007, Article ID 18908, 11 pages doi:10.1155/2007/18908 Research Article Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission F. Baryarama and J. Y. T. Mugisha Received 14 June 2007; Revised 8 September 2007; Accepted 7 November 2007 Recommended by Thomas P. Witelski A single-staged (SS) model and a staged progression (SP) model for HIV/AIDS with the same variable contact rate over time were formulated. In both models, analytical expres- sions for the HIV prevalence were obtained. A comparison of the two models was under- taken. It is shown that prevalence projections from the SS model are lower than projec- tions from the SP model up to and beyond the peak prevalence, although the SS model prevalence may be higher than that of the SP model much later in the epidemic. A switch from faster SP model prevalence changes to faster SS prevalence changes occurs beyond the SP model peak prevalence. Hence using the SS model underestimates HIV prevalence in the early stages of the epidemic but may overestimate prevalence in the declining HIV prevalence phase. Our comparison suggests that the SP model provides better prevalence projections than the SS model. Moreover, the extra parameters that would make the SP model appear diﬃcult to implement may not be sought from national survey data but from existing HIV/AIDS literature. Copyright © 2007 F. Baryarama and J. Y. T. Mugisha. This is an open access article dis- tributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is prop- erly cited. 1. Introduction The basis for most national HIV projections is usually a simple mathematical model often based on a single-stage (SS) model to ﬁt the observed prevalence patterns [ 1]. Yet, HIV- dynamics are quite complex.