development of flood forecasting system using statistical and ann techniques in the downstream catchment of mahanadi basin, india洪水预报系统的开发使用统计和安技术玛哈纳蒂盆地沿岸的下游流域,印度.pdfVIP

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development of flood forecasting system using statistical and ann techniques in the downstream catchment of mahanadi basin, india洪水预报系统的开发使用统计和安技术玛哈纳蒂盆地沿岸的下游流域,印度.pdf

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development of flood forecasting system using statistical and ann techniques in the downstream catchment of mahanadi basin, india洪水预报系统的开发使用统计和安技术玛哈纳蒂盆地沿岸的下游流域,印度

J. Water Resource and Protection, 2010, 2, 880-887 doi:10.4236/jwarp.2010.210105 Published Online October 2010 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jwarp) Development of Flood Forecasting System Using Statistical and ANN Techniques in the Downstream Catchment of Mahanadi Basin, India 1 2 1 3 Anil Kumar Kar , Anil Kumar Lohani , Narendra Kumar Goel , Gopal Prasad Roy 1 Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India 2National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India 3Department of Water Resources, Government of Orissa, Bhubaneswar, India E-mail : aklnih@, lohani@nih.ernet.in Received May 6, 2010; revised July 27, 2010; accepted August 12, 2010 Abstract The floods in river Mahanadi delta are due to either dam release of Hirakud or due to contribution of inter- cepted catchment between Hirakud dam and delta. It is seen from post-Hirakud periods (1958) that out of 19 floods 14 are due to intercepted catchment contribution. The existing flood forecasting systems are mostly for upstream catchment, forecasting the inflow to reservoir, whereas the downstream catchment is devoid of a sound flood forecasting system. Therefore, in this study an attempt has been made to develop a workable forecasting system for downstream catchment. Instead of taking the flow time series concurrent flood peaks of 12 years of base and forecasting stations with its corresponding travel time are considered for analysis. Both statistical method and ANN based approach are considered for finding the peak to reach at delta head with its corresponding travel time. The travel time has been finalized adopting clust