site specific uncertainty in regional haze rulehaze indexes网站特定区域的不确定性霾rulehaze索引.pdf

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2012, 2, 1-7 /10.4236/acs.2012.21001 Published Online January 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/acs) Site Specific Uncertainty in Regional Haze Rule Haze Indexes Patrick A. Ryan Scottsdale, USA Email: pryan01@ Received July 26, 2011; revised September 24, 2011; accepted October 16, 2011 ABSTRACT In 1999, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the regional haze rule (RHR). The RHR default implementation plan calls for each class I area 20% worst baseline (2000-2004) visibility to improve linearly in time to natural conditions in 2064 and in calendar year 2018, each class I area 20% worst visibility is to comply with the 2018 visibility that falls on the linear improvement glide path from baseline (2000-2004) to natural (2064) conditions. This study shows that accurately assessing compliance depends on assessing the uncertainty in baseline, natural and 2018 visibility estimates. This study identifies ±3 dV and ±4 dV of uncertainty in 20% worst natural and baseline visibility estimates. The percent uncertainty in calculated 2018 glide path visibility values ranges from 10% - 45%. Keywords: Haze 1. Introduction cles with aerodynamic diameters between 2.5 and 10 µm), sea salt, and water (H2O). The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) pub- Using the IMPROVE light extinction model, the EPA lished the Regional Haze Rule (RHR) [1] in 1999 to pro-