the economic and environmental impacts of constructing hydro power plants in turkey a dynamic cge analysis (2004-2020)建造水力发电厂的经济和环境影响在土耳其一个动态cge分析(2004 - 2020).pdfVIP

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the economic and environmental impacts of constructing hydro power plants in turkey a dynamic cge analysis (2004-2020)建造水力发电厂的经济和环境影响在土耳其一个动态cge分析(2004 - 2020).pdf

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the economic and environmental impacts of constructing hydro power plants in turkey a dynamic cge analysis (2004-2020)建造水力发电厂的经济和环境影响在土耳其一个动态cge分析(2004 - 2020)

Natural Resources, 2010, 1, 69-79 69 doi:10.4236/nr.2010.12007 Published Online December 2010 (http ://www.SciRP.org/j ournal/nr) The Economic and Environmental Impacts of Constructing Hydro Power Plants in Turkey: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2004-2020) * Levent Ayd n Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Moussa Bouh Odowa, Turkey. Email: leventaydin60@ st th th Received October 31 , 2010; revised November 24 , 2010; accepted November 25 , 20 10. ABSTRACT Since Turkey s economy and pop ulation is rapidly growing, Turkey mostly meets its energy demandf rom impo rted f os- sil sources due to the very limited indigenous oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey has abundant renewable resources esp ecially, hy dro po wer po tential to be usedf or generation of electricity . But only one-third of this significant economical p otential could be used. This usage seems insuffi cient when compa red with that of Europ ean countries. In order to analyze the p otential long term imp acts of the hy dro po wer expan ding shock on some macroeconomic vari- ables of interest such as GDP, real consump tion, real investment, expo rts, impo rts, trade balance, and carbon emis- sions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dy namic multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy . Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the imp act of hy dro po wer shock under p olicy scenario doubling hy dro po wer generation. The simulation results show that doubling hy dro po wer have slightly po sitive eff ects on macro indicators and carbon emis- sions f or Turkish economy . Keywords: Hydro Power Generation, Dy namic CGE, Turkey, Carbon Emission 1. Introduction sions.