the economics of power generation technology choice and investment timing in the presence of policy uncertainty发电技术选择的经济学和投资时机的政策不确定性的存在.pdfVIP

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the economics of power generation technology choice and investment timing in the presence of policy uncertainty发电技术选择的经济学和投资时机的政策不确定性的存在.pdf

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the economics of power generation technology choice and investment timing in the presence of policy uncertainty发电技术选择的经济学和投资时机的政策不确定性的存在

Low Carbon Economy, 2012, 3, 1-10 1 /10.4236/lce.2012.31001 Published Online March 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/lce) The Economics of Power Generation Technology Choice and Investment Timing in the Presence of Policy Uncertainty Robert Lundmark, Fredrik Pettersson Economics Unit, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden. Email: Robert.Lundmark@ltu.se Received January 10th, 2012; revised February 7th, 2012; accepted February 24th, 2012 ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to analyze how market and policy uncertainties affect the general profitability of new in- vestments in the power sector, and investigate the associated investment timing and technology choices. We develop an economic model for new investments in three competing energy technologies in the Swedish electric power sector. The model takes into account the policy impacts of the EU ETS and the Swedish green certificate scheme. By simulating and modeling policy effects through stochastic prices the results suggest that bio-fuelled power is the most profitable technology choice in the presence of existing policy instruments and under our assumptions. The likelihood of choosing gas power increases over time at the expense of wind power due to the relative capital requirement per unit of output for these technologies. Overall the results indicate that the economic incentives to postpone investments into the future are significant. Keywords: Bioenergy; Investment; Renewable Energy; Electricity; Wind Power 1. Introduction tional direction. The purpose of this study is to analyze how market In economics, accurately predicting market outcomes as and po