bayesian geostatistical analysis and prediction of rhodesian human african trypanosomiasis贝叶斯地理统计分析和预测的罗德西亚非洲人类锥虫病.pdfVIP

Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Prediction of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis 1,2 2 3 ` 4 1 Nicola A. Wardrop , Peter M. Atkinson , Peter W. Gething , Eric M. Fevre , Kim Picozzi , Abbas S. L. 5 1 Kakembo , Susan C. Welburn * 1 Centre for Infectious Diseases, Division of Pathway Medicine, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, 2 School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom, 3 Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 4 Centre for Infectious Diseases, Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, 5 Ministry of Health, Department of National Disease Control, Uganda Abstract Background: The persistent spread of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda in recent years has increased concerns of a potential overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Recent research has aimed to increase the evidence base for targeting control measures by focusing on the environmental and climatic factors that control the spatial distribution of the disease. Objectives: One recent study used simple logistic regression methods to explore the relationship between prevalence of Rhodesian HAT and several social, environmental and climatic variables in two of the most recently affected districts of Uganda, and suggested the disease had spread into the study area due to the movement of infected, untreated livestock. Here we extend this study to account for spatial autocorrelation, incorporate uncertainty in input data a