bayesian geostatistical modeling of malaria indicator survey data in angola贝叶斯地理统计模型的疟疾在安哥拉调查数据指标.pdfVIP

Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola 1 2 1 Laura Gosoniu *, Andre Mia Veta , Penelope Vounatsou ´ ´ 1 Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland, 2 Consultoria de Servic¸os, Estudos e Pesquisas - COSEP Consultoria, LDA, Luanda, Angola Abstract The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under 5 we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from 3:76% in Namibe province to 32:65% in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children