大灾之后,关注黑天鹅管理（After the disaster, pay attention to the black swan management）.docVIP

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大灾之后,关注黑天鹅管理（After the disaster, pay attention to the black swan management）.doc

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大灾之后,关注黑天鹅管理（After the disaster, pay attention to the black swan management）

大灾之后,关注黑天鹅管理（After the disaster, pay attention to the black swan management） At 13:46 on March 11, 2011, 9 earthquake occurred in Japan, the epicenter is located in Honshu, Japan, Sendai port, 130 kilometers east, the focal depth of 24 km, Tokyo has been strongly felt, the earthquake caused a tsunami. The media said it was the worst earthquake in Japan in 1200, killing tens of thousands of people and greatly disrupting the economic and social order in the greater Tokyo region and even across japan. Whats worse, the spate of explosions at the Fukushima nuclear plant in eastern Japan has led to a sudden increase in the risk of nuclear leakage, which has almost caused global panic. Market reaction after disaster An important manifestation of the panic was a sharp decline in global stock markets, including the United States and Britain, within a few days after the earthquake. The Nikkei index has fallen sharply for a long time, especially for insurance companies and auto companies. Bond yields have risen sharply as the market fears the government will borrow heavily again to support post disaster reconstruction, and it also depresses bond prices. However, the yen has been strong for several days after the earthquake, and at least some people are puzzled. Capital market price declines are a reflection of investor sentiment, but a sharp market shock also implies investment opportunities. It is necessary to point out that this discussion is not those who rely on national wealth investment opportunities. An important feature of the volatility of financial markets is overreaction. Once the financial price deviates sharply from the fundamentals, there is a huge opportunity for profits. Therefore, the accurate understanding and judgment of the economic and market reaction after the disaster is the important premise of the investment decision. However, every catastrophe is different, so there is no universally applicable investment strategy. In the past 20 years, the world has