reducing plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in africa a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies在非洲减少恶性疟原虫疟疾传播干预策略的基于模型的评价.pdfVIP

Reducing Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission in Africa: A Model-Based Evaluation of Intervention Strategies 1 1 1 1 1 Jamie T. Griffin , T. Deirdre Hollingsworth , Lucy C. Okell , Thomas S. Churcher , Michael White , Wes 1 2 2 1 ´ ´ ˜ 1 1 Hinsley , Teun Bousema , Chris J. Drakeley , Neil M. Ferguson , Marıa-Gloria Basanez , Azra C. Ghani * 1 MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, England, 2 Department of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene Tropical Medicine, London, England Abstract Background: Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools. Methods and Findings: We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized