sensitivity of household transmission to household contact structure and size敏感的家庭传播家庭联系的结构和尺寸.pdfVIP
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sensitivity of household transmission to household contact structure and size敏感的家庭传播家庭联系的结构和尺寸
Sensitivity of Household Transmission to Household
Contact Structure and Size
1,2 1 1 1,3
Achla Marathe *, Bryan Lewis , Jiangzhuo Chen , Stephen Eubank
1 Network Dynamics and Simulation Sciences Lab, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America, 2 Department of
Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America, 3 Department of Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United
States of America
Abstract
Objective: Study the influence of household contact structure on the spread of an influenza-like illness. Examine whether
changes to in-home care giving arrangements can significantly affect the household transmission counts.
Method: We simulate two different behaviors for the symptomatic person; either s/he remains at home in contact with
everyone else in the household or s/he remains at home in contact with only the primary caregiver in the household. The
two different cases are referred to as full mixing and single caregiver, respectively.
Results: The results show that the household’s cumulative transmission count is lower in case of a single caregiver
configuration than in the full mixing case. The household transmissions vary almost linearly with the household size in both
single caregiver and full mixing cases. However the difference in household transmissions due to the difference in household
structure grows with the household size especially in case of moderate flu.
Conclusions: These results suggest that details about human behavior and household structure do matter in
epidemiological models. The policy of home isolation of the sick has sign
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