simplified models of vector control impact upon malaria transmission by zoophagic mosquitoes简化的模型由zoophagic蚊子对疟疾传播媒介控制的影响.pdfVIP

Simplified Models of Vector Control Impact upon Malaria Transmission by Zoophagic Mosquitoes Samson S. Kiware1,2*, Nakul Chitnis3,4, Sarah J. Moore1,5, Gregor J. Devine1,6, Silas Majambere1,6, Stephen Merrill2, Gerry F. Killeen1,6 1 Biomedical and Environmental Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania, 2 Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science, Marquette University, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States of America, 3 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland, 4 University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland, 5 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, 6 Vector Group, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom Abstract Background: High coverage of personal protection measures that kill mosquitoes dramatically reduce malaria transmission where vector populations depend upon human blood. However, most primary malaria vectors outside of sub-Saharan Africa can be classified as ‘‘very zoophagic,’’ meaning they feed occasionally (,10% of blood meals) upon humans, so personal protection interventions have negligible impact upon their survival. Methods and Findings: We extended a published malaria transmission model to examine the relationship between transmission, control, and the baseline proportion of bloodmeals obtained from humans (human blood index). The lower limit of the human blood index enables derivation of simplified models for zoophagic vectors that (1) Rely on only three field-measurable parameters. (2) Predict immediate and delayed (with and without assuming reduced human infectivity, respectively) impacts of personal protection measures upon transmission. (3) Illustrate how appreciable indirect communal- level protection for non-users can be accrued through direct personal protection of users. (4) Suggest the