spatiotemporal trends and climatic factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in shandong province, china时空的趋势和气候因素与肾综合征出血热流行在山东,中国.pdfVIP

Spatiotemporal Trends and Climatic Factors of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Epidemic in Shandong Province, China 1. 2. 3. 1 2 1 1 Li-Qun Fang , Xian-Jun Wang , Song Liang , Yan-Li Li , Shao-Xia Song , Wen-Yi Zhang , Quan Qian , 1 1 2 1 1 Ya-Pin Li , Lan Wei , Zhi-Qiang Wang , Hong Yang , Wu-Chun Cao * 1 State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China, 2 Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China, 3 College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America Abstract Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood. Methods and Findings: Here we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and clima