罗伯特·S.平狄克-微观经济学（第九版）PindyckPPT_Ch.5.pptxVIP

MICROECONOMICSby Robert S. Pindyck Daniel RubinfeldNinth EditionCopyright ? 2016, 2012, 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved Chapter 5Uncertainty and Consumer BehaviorIn this chapter, we examine the ways that people can compare and choose among risky alternatives in four steps:Measures of riskPeople’s preferences toward riskWays of reducing riskTrade-offs in the amount of risk that people wish to bear.CHAPTER OUTLINE5.1 Describing Risk5.2 Preferences Toward Risk5.3 Reducing Risk5.4 The Demand for Risky AssetsLIST OF EXAMPLES5.1 Deterring Crime5.2 Business Executives and the Choice of Risk5.3 The Value of Title Insurance When Buying a House5.4 The Value of Information in an Online Consumer Electronics Market5.5 Doctors, Patients, and the Value of Information5.6 Investing in the Stock Market 5.1 Describing Risk (1 of 6)Probabilityprobability Likelihood that a given outcome will occur.One objective interpretation of probability relies on the frequency with which certain events tend to occur.Subjective probability is the perception that an outcome will occur.Two important measures that help us describe and compare risky choices are expected value and variability of the possible outcomes. 5.1 Describing Risk (2 of 6)Expected Valueexpected value Probability-weighted average of the payoffs associated with all possible outcomes.payoff Value associated with a possible outcome.The expected value measures the central tendency—the payoff or value that we would expect on average.Expected value = Pr(success)($40/share) + Pr(failure)($20/share) = (1/4)($40/share) + (3/4)($20/share) = $25/shareMore generally, if there are two possible outcomes, the expected value isWhen there are n possible outcomes, the expected value becomes 5.1 Describing Risk (3 of 6)Variabilityvariability Extent to which possible outcomes of an uncertain event differ.TABLE 5.1: INCOME FROM SALES JOBSBlank CellOutcome 1Outcome 1Outcome 2Outcome 2Blank CellBlank CellPROBABILITYINCOME ($)PROBABILIT