mortality and morbidity among people living close to incinerators a cohort study based on dispersion modeling for exposure assessment人的死亡率和患病率接近垃圾焚烧厂队列研究基于离散建模暴露评估.pdfVIP

Ranzi et al. Environmental Health 2011, 10:22 /content/10/1/22 RESEARCH Open Access Mortality and morbidity among people living close to incinerators: a cohort study based on dispersion modeling for exposure assessment 1† 2† 1 1 2 2* Andrea Ranzi , Valeria Fano , Laura Erspamer , Paolo Lauriola , Carlo A Perucci and Francesco Forastiere Abstract Background: Several studies have been conducted on the possible health effects for people living close to incinerators and well-conducted reviews are available. Nevertheless, several uncertainties limit the overall interpretation of the findings. We evaluated the health effects of emissions from two incinerators in a pilot cohort study. Methods: The study area was defined as the 3.5 km radius around two incinerators located near Forlì (Italy). People who were residents in 1/1/1990, or subsequently became residents up to 31/12/2003, were enrolled in a longitudinal study (31,347 individuals). All the addresses were geocoded. Follow-up continued until 31/12/2003 by linking the mortality register, cancer registry and hospital admissions databases. Atmospheric Dispersion Model System (ADMS) software was used for exposure assessment; modelled concentration maps of heavy metals (annual average) were considered the indicators of exposure to atmospheric pollution from the incinerators, while concentration maps of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were considered for exposure to other pollution sources. Age and area-based socioeconomic status adjusted rate ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals were estimated with Poisson regression, using the lowest exposure category to heavy metals as reference. Results: The mortality and morbidity experience of the w