原创力文档real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model a case study of pandemic influenza (h1n1-2009)实时预测流行病使用离散时间随机模型的案例研究大流行性流感(h1n1 - 2009).pdfVIP
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real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model a case study of pandemic influenza (h1n1-2009)实时预测流行病使用离散时间随机模型的案例研究大流行性流感(h1n1 - 2009)
Nishiura BioMedical Engineering OnLine 2011, 10:15
/content/10/1/15
RESEARCH Open Access
Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a
discrete time stochastic model: a case study of
pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)
Hiroshi Nishiura1,2,3
Correspondence: nishiura@hku.hk Abstract
1PRESTO, Japan Science and
Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho, Background: Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a
Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012,
Japan likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple
method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting.
Methods: A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic
stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case
study to the weekly incidence of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan. By
imposing a branching process approximation and by assuming the linear growth of
cases within each reporting interval, the epidemic curve is predicted using only two
parameters. The uncertainty bounds of the forecasts are computed using chains of
conditional offspring distributions.
Results: The quality of the forecasts made before the epidemic peak appears largely
to depend on obtaining valid parameter estimates. The forecasts of both weekly
incidence and final epidemic size greatly improved at and after the epidemic peak
with all the observed data points f
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