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tactical voting in plurality elections战术多数选举投票
Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections
´ 1 ´ 2 1,2
Nuno A. M. Araujo *, Jose S. Andrade Jr. , Hans J. Herrmann
´
1 Computational Physics for Engineering Materials, Institute for Building Materials, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 2 Departamento de Fısica, Universidade Federal do
´
Ceara, Fortaleza, Brazil
Abstract
How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from
several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting
as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by
the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this
model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of
victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls’ impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian
ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections
with two, three, and four candidates.
´
Citation: Araujo NAM, Andrade JS Jr, Herrmann HJ (2010) Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections. PLoS ONE 5(9): e12446. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012446
Editor: Enrico Scalas, University of East Piedmont, Italy
Received May 18, 2010; Accepted July 26, 2010; Published September 15, 2010
Copyright: 2010 Araujo et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the t
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