考虑多风电场出力copula相关关系的场景生成方法-华中科技大学.pdf

DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2013.16.012 33 16 Vol.33 No.16 Jun.5, 2013 30 2013 6 5 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2013 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2013) 16-0030-07 TM 71 A 470·40 Copula 1 1 1 2 (1() 430074 2() 530004) A Scene Generation Method Considering Copula Correlation Relationship of Multi-wind Farms Power 1 1 1 2 LI Jinghua , WEN Jinyu , CHENG Shijie , WEI Hua (1. State Key Lab of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Wuhan 430074, Hubei Province, China; 2. Guangxi Power System Optimization and Energy-saving Technique Key Lab (Guangxi University), Nanning 530004, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China) ABSTRACT: It is important to deal with wind power random changes by reasonable portraying and producing scenarios of future wind farms’ power in power systems. Aims to the difficulty in forming scenarios of multi-wind farm’s power, this IEEE 30 paper proposed a method for producing scenario generation based on Copula function. It can effectively avoid constructing joint probability distribution. The resulting scenarios can better capture the dependency structure and thus the method can achieve accurate simulation of wind farm power. Empirical research of the State of Texas wind farm was