基于动力学模型的人口与淡水资源问题研究-水土保持研究.PDFVIP

13 4 Vo l. 13 No . 4 200 6 8 Research of So il and Water Co nserv atio n A ug . 2006* 陈玲玲 林振山 谢正磊 ( 210097) : : ( 1) ; ; ( 2) ; ( 3) - : ; ; : S27 3; C92- 05 : A : 1005- 3409( 2006) 04- 02 37- 03 Study of Human Activities and Freshwater Resources Based on the Dynami c Model CH EN L ing- ling LIN Zhen- sh an XIE Zheng- lei ( The College of Geograp hic Sciences, N anj ing Normal University , N anj ing 2 10097, China) Abstract:T he glob al fr eshw ater reso ur ces is f acing an unprecedented crisis now the realation ship amo ng the population econo- my and freshw ater r eso urces is one of the most impo rtant issu es f acing civilization in the 21st century . Based on the sy stem dy- nam ics a nonlinear dy nam ic model of the evo lv em ent betw een hum an activ ities and freshw ater r eso ur ces is estublished the re- sult s show : ( 1) Incr ease in freshw at er car ry ing capacit y w ill m ake f reshw ater amount stay ing in a low er level and populatio n a- mo unt in equ ilibrium linear increase. ( 2) Ex cess irr igated land a rea unco ntr olled indu strial dev elo pm ent and continuo us accel- er ated w ater pollution all of them w ill m ake the freshw ater r eso urces and populatio n amount in equ ilibr ium decr eased and ex- er t f athomless inf lu ence o n the g lo bal fr eshw ater eco system . ( 3) T he su st ainable develo pm ent o f the system betw een population and freshw ater resources mu st be est ablished on the b asis of the ability that the sum of r ate of the