出人意料的人口变化（Unexpected demographic changes）.docVIP

出人意料的人口变化（Unexpected demographic changes） Unexpected demographic changes Max Singer Will the population of the world continue to grow as people generally believe? What are the factors that contribute to population change? Please read the following article and find out. What? Now, fifty years from now, the worlds population will decrease and there will be no sign of termination. Unless peoples values change dramatically, the population of the entire globe will be less likely to live in the United States than it is today after centuries. The most surprising thing about the past twenty years is that no country has stopped falling when its birth rate falls to the rate of population replacement - each woman has 2.1 children. In Italy, for example, the rate has dropped to 1.2. All Western Europe and Japan fell to 1.5. The evidence now shows that in about fifty years, the worlds population will reach the peak of eight billion, and then will begin to decrease fairly rapidly. Because, in the past two centuries, the worlds population has increased from one billion to almost six billion, and many people fear that the population will explode until the earth can not afford a huge population. But its like worrying because your baby will weigh up to one thousand pounds in the first seven years, six times the weight. In 60s, the worlds population grew by only 2% a year, and that rate has now fallen to 1% a year. If there were no fundamental changes in the fertility model of the last century, this would lead to a negative population growth. Although the public continues to focus on the dangers of runaway population growth, these views have been widely accepted by demographers. ?????? As early as September 1974, American science magazine published a special issue on population, describes the population at the start will be referred to as the demographic transition, from traditional high birth rate and death to the modern societys low birth rate and death rate. Experts believe that th