利率法则与央行政策透明度之新凯因斯学派dsge模型.docVIP

Inflation Targeting, Exchange-Rate Targeting Monetary Policies in an Open New Keynesian DSGE Model Hsu Chen-Min(?Tsai Yue-Kun(( June. 2017 Abstract Recently after the US economy recovered from the 2007-2016 Great Recession, people have been increasingly paying more attention to the Fed’s monetary policy target interest rate, in particular, when the FOMC will raise the targeting federal funds rate. How monetary policy should be publicly disclosed in order to make overall economy achieve a higher social welfare is related to the issue of the monetary policy strategy, including targeting, exchange-rate targeting and the Taylor (see Mishkin and Eakins (2015, Ch.10), Miles, Scott and Breeden (2012, Ch.13). In this study, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is utilized to construct a small New Keynesian open macroeconomic model. Following Gali and Gertler (1999), Gali and Monacelli (2005), Walsh (2010, Ch.8), this model contains a certain degree of price rigidity, and two types of firms with forward looking and backward looking expectations. Then we used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of the model using Taiwan data. We put several shocks onto a number of sectors of the model, and examined the effects of central bank’s different targeting policies on the economy. It is found that the economic welfare of the policy target adopted by the central bank depends on the types of shocks. That is, whether the shock is real or nominal is crucial to the welfare of monetary policy implementation. Keywords: central bank; monetary policy objective; interest rate rule; policy transparency; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model; new Keynesian model 1. Introduction In recent years both academic and practice circles have greatly attached importance to study the issue of central bank’s monetary policy targeting. In particular, after the US economy recovered from the 2007-2016 Great Recession, people have been increasingly paying more attentio