养老保险替代率警戒线测算模型及实证分析-人口与经济.pdfVIP

2008 5 No. 5, 2008 ( 170 ) POPULATION ECONOMICS (T ot. No . 170) ) ) ) 以陕西省为例 孙 博, 雍 岚 ( , 710049) : 根据养老保险必须维持退休职工基本生活的原则, 本文将养老保险替代率警 线界定为能够 维持退休职工基本生活的替代率水平下限, 以扩展线性支出系统 ( ELES) 为基础, 构建了养老保险替 代率警 线模型和指标体系, 并以陕西省为例进行了实证分析结果表明, 1997 ~ 2006 年陕西省的养 老保险替代率警 线约为45% , 基本保持稳定 但同一时期陕西省养老保险实际替代率下降速度较 快, 按照这一趋势, 将在2012 年前后触及警 线水平, 退休职工的基本生活将会受到较大影响 : 养老保险替代率 警 线 扩展线性支出系统 : F840167 : A : 1000 - 4149 ( 2008) 05- 0066- 05 An Empirical Analysis on the Calculation of Pension Insurance Substitution Rate Alertness Line: Based on Shanxi Province SUN Bo, YONG Lan ( School of Public Policy and Administrat ion , Xi. an Jiaotong University, Xi. an , 710049, China) Abstract: In accordance w ith the principal th at pension insurance must satisfy w ith basic living demand of retired staff, the pension insurance substitution rate alertness line is fixed at the lower limit. Based on Extend Linear Expenditure System ( ELES) the pension insurance substitution rate alertness model and indicator system are established , and an empirical analysis taking Shanxi Province as example is made. The results demonstrates that from 1997 to 2006, the substitution rate alertness line was 45% , remaining steady while during the same period, the real substitution rate decreased at a relatively high speed. The trend w ill continue. The alertness level will have been reached around 2012 , which w ill bring about severs impact on retired staff. s basic living conditions. Keywords: pension insurance substituti